Understanding & Reading a Surf Forecast: A Beginner’s Guide
Before you hit the waves, knowing how to read a surf forecast can make the difference between scoring perfect surf and paddling out into a blown-out mess. Understanding wave height, period, wind direction, and tides will help you find the best conditions for your session. Let’s break it down step by step.
Key Elements of a Surf Forecast
When checking a surf forecast, you’ll come across a few key metrics. Here’s what they mean and why they matter:
Understanding a Surf Forecast:
1. Swell Height (Wave Size)
• Measured in feet or meters, this indicates how big the waves will be.
• Example: 3-4 ft (1m) means waves will likely break around chest-to-shoulder height.
Keep in mind: Swell height doesn’t always equal breaking wave height. A 3ft swell can produce head-high waves, depending on the beach’s shape and ocean floor.
2. Swell Period (Wave Energy & Power)
• Measured in seconds, this tells you how much power the waves have.
• Short period (5-9 sec): Choppy, weak waves.
• Medium period (10-13 sec): Fun, decent power.
• Long period (14+ sec): Powerful, well-organised waves.
Rule of thumb: A 4ft swell with a 7-second period will feel weak, but a 4ft swell with a 14-second period will be much more powerful and surfable.
Reading a Surf Forecast
3. Swell Direction (Where the Waves Are Coming From)
• If a beach faces west, a west or southwest swell will bring the best waves.
• If the swell is coming from a direction that doesn’t match your beach’s exposure, waves may be smaller or not break properly.
Pro tip: Check local surf reports to see which swell directions work best for your spot.
Reading a Surf Forecast
4. Wind Direction (Offshore vs. Onshore Wind)
• Offshore wind (blowing from land to sea): Best for surfing—creates clean, well-shaped waves.
• Onshore wind (blowing from sea to land): Makes waves messy and choppy.
• Cross-shore wind: Blows sideways, which can mess up wave shape but might still be surfable.
Ideal conditions: Light offshore winds or no wind at all.
Reading a Surf Forecast: A Beginner’s Guide
5. Tide (How It Affects Waves)
• Some breaks work better at high tide, while others are best at low tide.
• Tides affect wave size, shape, and speed.
• Check local surf guides to see what tide is best for your surf spot.
Example:
• A shallow reef break may work best at mid to high tide to avoid hitting the reef.
• A beach break might be better at low to mid tide when sandbanks shape the waves better.
How to Read a Surf Forecast in Action Let’s say you check a forecast, and it looks like this:
• Swell: 4ft @ 12s
• Swell Direction: WSW
• Wind: Light offshore
• Tide: Rising mid-tide
Verdict: This looks great! The wave size is solid, the 12-second period means powerful waves, the offshore wind keeps it clean, and the rising tide might improve conditions further.If instead, the forecast looked like this:
• Swell: 4ft @ 7s
• Wind: Strong onshore
• Tide: Dead low
Verdict: The waves will likely be weak and messy, with little power and poor shape. Not ideal for surfing. Where to Check Surf Forecasts? There are plenty of great surf forecasting websites and apps:
✅ Surfline
✅ Windy (for wind and weather charts)
✅ Windguru
✅ Big Salty (great for UK surf forecasts)
💡 Pro tip: Check multiple sources and compare—some may be more accurate for your specific spot.
Final Thoughts: Mastering the Surf Forecast Reading a surf forecast helps you save time, pick the best surf spots, and avoid wasted sessions. The more you study swell charts and conditions, the better you’ll get at predicting good waves.
Want to learn more? Join us at Outer Reef Surf School for hands-on coaching, where we break down surf forecasts and help you choose the best waves for your skill level. See you in the water!
Surfing at Freshwater West, Manorbier, Newgale, and Broad Haven for Beginners
One of the highlights of learning to surf in Pembrokeshire is the range of beautiful beaches you’ll experience. Here’s a quick guide to each beginner-friendly location:

Freshwater West Beach
Known for its consistent surf, Freshwater West is a favorite spot for beginners. The waves are steady and gentle, perfect for practicing pop-ups and balance.

Manorbier Beach
A picturesque beach with soft, rolling waves, Manorbier offers ideal conditions for first-time surfers looking to build confidence.

Newgale Beach
Newgale’s long, sandy beach provides ample space and forgiving waves, making it a fantastic location for your first surfing experience.

Broad Haven Beach
This beach is known for its sheltered, calm waves, offering an easy and enjoyable introduction to surfing.
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